The Madness of Tennis Math
Last month my son was playing a 10 and under tournament at Rick Macci’s academy and I had the pleasure to sit next to a fellow parent who was there watching a grandson play. So, we struck a conversation on the costs of learning to play tennis. The following article is basically a summary of our conversation.
The cost of a high performance tennis academy in South Florida is roughly $1,500.00 week, (Saviano, Sanchez Casal, Blackman ,USTA new PD head) this is the equivalent of $6,000.00 month or on a school year $60,000.00. This includes schooling. In order to make $60,000.00 after tax you need to make $90,000.00 before tax. Just for the readers reference in order to have $90,000.00 disposable income for one kid you would need to be in the top 1% of income earners in this country.
By the way, the average household income in the state of Florida is $54,000.00. Granted tennis is not an average person’s sport, so for argument’s sake let us triple the average income to $162,000.00 before taxes. After taxes this income is $113,400.00. So, certainly enrolling a kid to tennis boarding school is not possible since it would cost $60,000.00. So, as a parent, what is one supposed to do? Maybe take kids to tennis class twice a week. At a HP facility that is roughly $800.00 month or approximately $9,600.00 after taxes or $12,480.00 before taxes.
We all know that twice a week is nowhere near the practice that a kid needs in addition to equipment and all the rest of expenses, hotels, equipment, gasoline, etc. So, let’s say that the range of getting a HP tennis education is somewhere between $12,500.00 – $60,000.00 after taxes, this means anywhere between $16,250.00 and $90,000.00 before taxes. On the low end, this means $1,354.00 per month or $7,500.00 / month on the high end.
As a reference a 30 year loan on a $300,000.00 property is about $1,400.00 USD month. Today’s prices for Florida State University are roughly $20,000.00 year Including tuition, room and board etc.
In order to develop a junior, one needs to work at least 8 years. So, if we calculate the lowest price range of $800.00 a month x 96 months = $76,800.00 USD after taxes or approximately $100,000.00 USD. As one can see, for sums that are so large that it is almost absurd to consider playing tennis. Why on earth would one wish to invest this much money this way? So, here is the question parents in America face?
Why would we invest the equivalent of a years of room and board and tuition, or the same amount of money as a home valued at $300,000.00, on a sport where the odds of being a pro and making a living are 1 in 20,000. To put some perspective on the odds, imagine working for 8 years, spending all the money described above, entering Arthur Ash stadium in NYC (which seats a little over 20K people) and hoping to get picked to be a pro. It simply is not happening.
There is a reason the fans in professional tournaments are never kids, mostly seniors. There is a reason why America does not have a number one or wins Davis cups. The math simply does not make sense. Until it does, we will be enjoying watching foreigners play. By the way, the countries where these foreigners come from have nowhere near the money we spend on trying to learn HP tennis.
So, what are we supposed to do if one cannot afford a high-performance education.? Simply pick another sport.? This math is impossible to sustain.
Tennis needs kids, tennis needs fans, tennis needs to be redesigned from the ground up and of course we need our star. The current path makes no sense whatsoever. The math says so, the kids say so. It is simply madness. I am sure many people will disagree with me. Please consider that for the sport to produce results, it needs a mass of people to sustain it. One or two stars that the USTA may develop comes at what price?
I can be reached atjpalenque@yahoo.com or at twitter @palenquej.
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Then you forgot to factor in airfare for player and coach hotel and food and turning and expenses for instance one year my daughter was very young eight tournaments $15,000 to be
#2 u12 Usta southern section. As you get older costs go up exorbitantly when you travel for nationals, ITF jr and ITF futures. So no wonder at the highest level tournaments the level of tennis
BOO-ya! Tell it, Roy!
I am a former tour coach and now coachyou daughter. If I count my unrealized expenses for coaching her it is close to $584,400. Realized costs are around I am too scared to count. Plus to train her I have passed up any lucrative jobs. This from age 6 to almost 16 now
I’ve been playing and coaching for 30 years and see the same idiocies as you do – but bravo to you for getting it into print on the web! We need MUCH more dirt kicked up to save our sport! Keep up the good work!!
Pat at patlesertennis.com
Good points on the cost and the need for tennis to attract new fans. As a 30+ year coach, it seems that now everyone thinks they are superstar material. This comes from the parents and from people teaching them. We have, it seems, reached a point where we only are trying to attract the superstars and not the blue collar kids who will be our future. Why are we not trying to “grow the game” to all ages and levels and not just the elite. I agree with your statement that that is why we haven’t had a cup victory in a while and no really top players for a while. Look at the colleges where we have mostly foreign players and dwindling numbers of American players. We are growing the game for those in search of greatness but if and when they fall short, we are left with nothing. Look at the unqualified individuals who hang out a shingle and start an academy. Part of this success is due to parents who have stars in their eyes about how good of a player their child is. We are rapidly losing our history of the game and it is not being taught, sadly, by many of the pros of the game. They seem to be only interested in the latest trend and player.
Like!
Numbers and “odds” do not have anything to do with being a pro. U like to talk a lot about numbers. This is tennis. There are no numbers involved. The statistics you mention are of absolutely no value or importance because there are variables that go into them. We are talking about humans and their abilities here. So 1 in 20K will be a pro? This is like saying 1 in 20K will win the lottery. That would make sense because it is completely random! But 1 in 20K will be a pro? The kids that work the hardest and have the best coaching can try their hand at being a pro. So it is not just random as you are trying to put it.
Alex, thank you for your comment maybe we can agree to disagree. Maybe i can better explain myself. Numbers and odds have absolutely everything to do with tennis. Tennis is a math game and therefore all its results are bases on probabilities had, converted and missed. The odds winning a 32 draw are 1/32, a 64 draw 1/64, a 128 draw 1/128. Tennis is a human game where humans will make thousands of errors and therefore every error reduced the probability of winning. To win the lottery your odds are 1/4000000, so its a lot better to save your dollar guaranteed 3,999999 million times. To become a pro in tennis is such a long shot that is filled with randomness: bad coaches at the proper time, lack of mental training or poor quality, lack of finances,health issues etc etc. the list never ends all these factors are of course random. One as a kid does not choose the coach for thousands of reasons, then of course as kids get older finances determine your possibilities. Then the length of time of mental preparation and lastly the ability of your body to sustain the work. All random based on each kids upbringing and finances. I can assure you that math and stats are all used in professional sports, watch the movie moneymaker, its all about stats and randomness and numbers in sports. Lastly the point of the article is to state that sending a kid to an academy ( call it prep school for tennis) is unreachable to 99% of the population. Hard to develop a sport that excludes 99% of its pool of people. Getting high performance training therefore has to be affordable.becoming a pro is nearly impossible, earning money to be a pro means front ending the expenses with no guarantees. The numbers are clear and tell a definite story for each parent to ponder.
Hi Javier. I think you nailed it perfectly. For a middle class parent if you don’t plan it math-wise, you’re planning to fail, especially if you have more than one kid. To me tennis, if you want to treat it professionally, is like a casino, you have got a couple thousand would-be players chipping in, but only a handful of those cashing in. We’re talking about ranks 1-100, and you can do your own math based on earnings from the players tournaments prizes. From this perspective I have come to the conclusion that if you have your own money, you’d better be prepared to lose it (just like you should when entering a casino and you have to be all in) as otherwise you may be in trouble. Certainly, if your child is exceptional you stand a better chance of some private investor/sponsor who’s got plenty of money and he/she won’t care if your child doesn’t make it (hopefully). Still, you have to be careful who’re you accepting money from as I know one case of a female player (highest ranking 30-something) who was supported financially from the age of 15 and then when she was 21 instead of focusing on the game she spent more time with lawyers in courts fighting the old sponsor and now her career is over (I’m sure there have been more cases like this one).
As you have rightly said, it’s complete madness. Tennis is a brutal business where all the rules apply, and you’d better approach it realistically knowing your strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats just to make a very simple association.
It’s all about the numbers, but not about the money. The only 2 numbers that matter between the ages of 8 and 12 are 1 and 500. Let junior take 1 private lesson a week and then just play matches the rest of the week with the objective of logging 500 sets in a calendar year. That’s the best value and the most valuable player development education money can buy. That’s the formula we followed from age 8 to 12 and if we did it all over again, I wouldn’t change a thing.
If your kid has an extreme passion for tennis, an incredible work ethic, is considered an athletic talent, has a tremendous support team, and a whole lotta luck, tennis will find you and present you with opportunities regardless of the size of your wallet. That doesn’t mean you’ll be #1 or #1,000 in the world, but 1 and 500 is a great place to start.
Sorry, I just don’t know how tennis is NOT be about money in today’s world if you’re talking developing a player from the ground all the way to the pros (if you said it about football from the European perspective, you’d be almost right). Someone has to pay for it, and it’s the parents or outside sources. I’ve talked to a number of parents and coaches, and yes there’s a group of potential parents who don’t mind spending a couple hundred thousand dollars. At every other tournament I go to there’s a discussion at some stage how much it costs the parents, some say it in a bragging way as if to prove their status, others talk about it worryingly.
Javier has rightly said that you won’t develop this sport if majority are automatically excluded – these are the facts you can’t argue with. Take parents of kids who play football, soccer, basketball, volleyball etc. and try to talk them into playing tennis laying out the cards on the table – you won’t get many, or next to none. Maybe the tennis world doesn’t want more kids to play the sport? I’m not complaining, just saying that these are the facts and to me Javier is absolutely right. Under the current circumstances there are 100 job vacancies in the world of pro tennis: 1-10 ranked you’re top brass, 20-50 very well paid executives, 50-100 well paid managers, 100-+ you’re an employee trying to keep afloat from tournament to tournament hoping to get promoted (and with hardly any chance to get the investment back). That’s how I see it.
Is the system perfect? Absolutely not. My point was and still is, it doesn’t have to be about the money in the younger years. It takes some creativity and work but it can be done, and it can be done better and much cheaper than $1,500 per week! In my opinion, too many American juniors still overlesson and underplay. I see this happen over and over and over. Please don’t take out a second mortgage and put your 9-10 year old on the Tennis Academy hamster wheel. Cost does not equal value. Put a plan in place that includes 1 private a week and then play 7-10 sets a week. It’s a better learning environment on so many levels and it’s a heckuva lot cheaper than $6,000 a month.
As junior players develop and mature, the system (academies, federations, sponsors) will find and help support elite players.
I see your point. I fully agree it can be done a lot cheaper as this is exactly what I’m doing with my kids.